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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 50

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 29-T.Tracy left guard to DAL 44 for 6 yards (28-M.Hooker; 26-D.Bland).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.45 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model