Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-B.Covey to PHI 20 for 10 yards (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model