PHI @ BAL — 4th & Data

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HC Nick Sirianni

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HC John Harbaugh

Sunday 2024-12-01 · 16:25 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

PHI

37.3%

BAL

62.7%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BAL offense: +0.241 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
PHI offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.359 EPA/dropback in prior starts
PHI defense: -0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
BAL defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24

–

BAL 26

Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

PHI

Darius Slay CB Out Concussion

Ben VanSumeren LB Out Knee

Johnny Wilson WR Questionable Hamstring

Sydney Brown S Questionable Knee

DeVonta Smith WR Questionable Hamstring

BAL

Charlie Kolar TE Out Forearm

Arthur Maulet CB Out Calf

Kyle Van Noy LB Doubtful Hamstring

Michael Pierce DT Questionable Calf

T.J. Tampa CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 24

–

BAL 19

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:25 FG BAL (9:25) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. PHI 0 – BAL 3
Q1 03:56 TD BAL (3:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – BAL 9
Q2 08:09 TD PHI (8:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – BAL 9
Q2 02:03 TD PHI (2:03) 1-J.Hurts FUMBLES (Aborted) at BAL 1, and recovers at BAL 1. 1-J.Hurts for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – BAL 9
Q2 00:08 FG BAL (:08) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. PHI 14 – BAL 12
Q4 08:04 TD PHI (8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – BAL 12
Q4 01:07 FG PHI (1:07) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 24 – BAL 12
Q4 00:07 TD BAL (:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 24 – BAL 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PHI 4th & 16 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(13:18) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to BAL 18, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace. PENALTY on PHI-22-K.Ringo, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 18.
Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

(9:25) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(8:35) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BAL 18, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.
Q1 PHI 4th & 18 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(1:38) 10-B.Mann punts 56 yards to BAL 25, Center-49-R.Lovato. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 36 for 11 yards (54-J.Trotter; 42-O.Burks).
Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-B.Covey to PHI 20 for 10 yards (49-C.Board).
Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 59

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP

p(convert) 64%

(12:26) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to BAL 1, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-21-S.Brown.
Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 94

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP

p(convert) 53%

(11:05) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to PHI 46, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-B.Covey to BAL 49 for 5 yards (23-T.Simpson).
Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(6:10) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to PHI 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 32 for 4 yards (23-T.Simpson).
Q3 BAL 4th & 19 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

(10:00) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(8:29) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to BAL 13, Center-49-R.Lovato. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 17 for 4 yards (22-K.Ringo). FUMBLES (22-K.Ringo), and recovers at BAL 18.
Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 74%

(5:06) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 41 for 2 yards (3-N.Smith; 98-J.Carter). PHI-17-N.Dean was injured during the play.
Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 35

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 68%

(1:26) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 53

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 24%

(:01) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BAL 5, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-22-K.Ringo.
Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(11:30) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to PHI 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 10 yards (49-C.Board).
Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 58

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(6:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers (36-T.McCollum).
Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 33

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71% p(FG) 73%

(5:21) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to BAL 30 for 3 yards (0-R.Smith; 14-K.Hamilton).
Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 17 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

(1:07) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.