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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to PHI 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 32 for 4 yards (23-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model