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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to BAL 18, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace. PENALTY on PHI-22-K.Ringo, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.68 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model