Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Baltimore Ravens 12

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to BAL 13, Center-49-R.Lovato. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 17 for 4 yards (22-K.Ringo). FUMBLES (22-K.Ringo), and recovers at BAL 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model