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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.28 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model