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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to PHI 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 10 yards (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.75 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model