Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(8:35) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BAL 18, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.68 EP
54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model