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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 41

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to BUF 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.91 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model