Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- BUF on 7 more days rest than SF
- SF offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.206 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.166 EPA/dropback (SF starting Brock Purdy in place of Brandon Allen)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
SF
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:44 FG SF (7:44) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell. SF 3 – BUF 0
- Q1 00:08 TD BUF (:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – BUF 6
- Q2 08:48 TD BUF (8:48) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook right tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – BUF 13
- Q2 00:47 TD BUF (:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-M.Hollins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – BUF 20
- Q3 06:05 TD BUF (6:05) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 18-A.Cooper to SF 9 for -2 yards. Lateral to 17-J.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – BUF 27
- Q3 03:00 TD SF (3:00) (Shotgun) 31-I.Guerendo left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – BUF 28
- Q4 12:39 TD BUF (12:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – BUF 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(12:31) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to SF 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Cowing to SF 37 for 13 yards (42-Do.Williams).
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Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%
(7:44) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%
(8:52) 4-J.Moody 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 50%
(3:43) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to BUF 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 61% p(FG) 42%
(10:20) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to SF 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-89-J.Virgil.
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Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(9:15) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to BUF 48, Center-46-T.Pepper. 29-B.Codrington to SF 44 for 8 yards (18-C.Conley).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 85%
(6:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at SF 7 for 18 yards (53-D.Winters).
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Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 44%
(4:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings to BUF 17 for 26 yards (7-Ta.Johnson, 43-T.Bernard).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 63%
(:40) 8-S.Martin punts 54 yards to SF 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Cowing pushed ob at SF 23 for 12 yards (39-C.Lewis).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 77%
(9:39) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(8:12) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to BUF 25, Center-46-T.Pepper. 29-B.Codrington for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 35.