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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to SF 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Cowing to SF 37 for 13 yards (42-Do.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.04 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model