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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 21 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to SF 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-89-J.Virgil.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP