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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 35 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.19 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model