Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Buffalo Bills 35

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to BUF 25, Center-46-T.Pepper. 29-B.Codrington for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.83 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model