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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model