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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by LA-84-H.Long at BUF 22. 84-H.Long for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model