4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

BUF
61.9%
LA
38.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.223 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BUF 27
–
LA 23
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BUF

DeWayne Carter DT Questionable Wrist
Tylan Grable T Questionable Groin
Quintin Morris TE Questionable Shoulder
Keon Coleman WR Questionable Wrist
Dalton Kincaid TE Questionable Knee

LA

Tyler Higbee TE Out Knee
K.T. Leveston T Out Ankle
Alaric Jackson T Questionable Foot
Jared Verse LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 42
–
LA 44

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 36 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:29 TD LA (8:29) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 03:27 TD BUF (3:27) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-95-B.Brown, Defensive Offside, declined. BUF 6 – LA 7
  • Q2 13:40 FG LA (13:40) 16-J.Karty 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. BUF 7 – LA 10
  • Q2 12:38 TD LA (12:38) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by LA-84-H.Long at BUF 22. 84-H.Long for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – LA 16
  • Q2 10:32 TD BUF (10:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – LA 17
  • Q2 02:39 TD LA (2:39) 17-P.Nacua left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – LA 23
  • Q3 08:31 TD LA (8:31) 23-K.Williams right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – LA 30
  • Q3 04:04 TD BUF (4:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – LA 31
  • Q3 00:22 TD LA (:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-31-R.Douglas was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: LA-15-D.Robinson has returned to the game. BUF 21 – LA 37
  • Q4 14:29 TD BUF (14:29) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – LA 38
  • Q4 08:53 TD BUF (8:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 34 – LA 38
  • Q4 02:00 TD LA (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 35 – LA 44
  • Q4 01:02 TD BUF (1:02) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 41 – LA 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (13:40) 16-J.Karty 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (12:38) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 35-J.Hummel, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by LA-84-H.Long at BUF 22. 84-H.Long for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (:56) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to LA 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:08) 8-S.Martin punts 55 yards to LA 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-X.Smith to LA 24 for 8 yards (89-J.Virgil).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:00) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to BUF 9, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%

    (3:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 5-T.Atwell to BUF 24 for 11 yards (9-T.Rapp).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 56%

    (:07) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.