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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 14 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 8-S.Martin punts 55 yards to LA 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-X.Smith to LA 24 for 8 yards (89-J.Virgil).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.90 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model