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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 38 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to BUF 9, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP