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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 38 – Buffalo Bills 35

What Actually Happened

(3:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 5-T.Atwell to BUF 24 for 11 yards (9-T.Rapp).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.42 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model