Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 58

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(:14) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to SF 12, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 14 yards (36-J.Owens). PENALTY on SF-22-I.Yiadom, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at SF 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.89 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -1.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model