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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CHI
40.9%
SF
59.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.138 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.099 EPA/dropback
  • SF defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CHI on 3 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

CHI 23
–
SF 25
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CHI

Ryan Bates G Out Concussion
Elijah Hicks S Out Ankle
Roschon Johnson RB Out Concussion
D.J. Moore WR Questionable Quadricep
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Quadricep

SF

Jordan Mason RB Out Ankle
George Odum S Out Knee
Trent Williams T Out Ankle
Dre Greenlaw LB Out Achilles
Nick Bosa DE Doubtful Hip
Aaron Banks G Questionable Concussion
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Questionable Knee
Talanoa Hufanga S Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 13
–
SF 38

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:25 TD SF (12:25) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 01:43 TD SF (1:43) 31-I.Guerendo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-99-G.Dexter was injured during the play. CHI 0 – SF 13
  • Q2 07:46 TD SF (7:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – SF 20
  • Q2 01:53 FG SF (1:53) 4-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell. CHI 0 – SF 24
  • Q3 06:01 TD CHI (6:01) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – SF 24
  • Q4 15:00 TD SF (15:00) (Shotgun) 31-I.Guerendo up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – SF 30
  • Q4 11:54 TD CHI (11:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – SF 31
  • Q4 05:19 TD SF (5:19) (Shotgun) 32-P.Taylor up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – SF 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to SF 13, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%

    (6:17) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 39-J.Blackwell.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 17 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:01) 19-T.Taylor punts 60 yards to SF 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 36 for 7 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:14) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to SF 21, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 29 for 8 yards (92-D.Hardy).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 89%

    (9:47) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to CHI 22 for 1 yard (91-Ch.Williams).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:44) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to SF 19, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 7 yards (30-T.Moore).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (1:53) 4-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:14) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to SF 12, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 14 yards (36-J.Owens). PENALTY on SF-22-I.Yiadom, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at SF 12.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:07) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to CHI 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 39-J.Blackwell pushed ob at CHI 35 for 14 yards (41-J.Graham).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 87%

    (7:03) 32-P.Taylor right tackle to CHI 19 for 6 yards (29-T.Stevenson; 36-J.Owens).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:42) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to SF 35, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing. PENALTY on CHI-30-T.Moore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.