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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 71

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to SF 13, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model