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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 39-J.Blackwell.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model