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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(9:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Brown (13-D.Overshown).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.00 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model