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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Monday 2024-12-09 · 20:15 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

CIN
65.1%
DAL
34.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Cooper Rush (DAL) -0.103 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.162 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than CIN

Predicted Final Score

CIN 25
–
DAL 20
Projected margin: CIN by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CIN

Orlando Brown T Out Fibula
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Illness
Charlie Jones WR Questionable Groin

DAL

Zack Martin G Out Ankle
Juanyeh Thomas S Out Knee
Tyler Guyton T Questionable Ankle
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 27
–
DAL 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:59 TD DAL (8:59) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 02:51 TD CIN (2:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – DAL 7
  • Q2 06:26 FG DAL (6:26) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. CIN 7 – DAL 10
  • Q2 03:36 TD CIN (3:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at DAL 3 for 16 yards (6-Do.Wilson). Cincinnati challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – DAL 10
  • Q2 00:34 FG CIN (:34) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 17 – DAL 10
  • Q3 10:37 TD DAL (10:37) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 3-B.Cooks for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-28-J.Newton, Defensive Holding, declined. CIN 17 – DAL 16
  • Q4 15:00 FG DAL (15:00) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. CIN 17 – DAL 20
  • Q4 10:28 FG CIN (10:28) 3-C.York 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 20 – DAL 20
  • Q4 01:09 TD CIN (1:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 26 – DAL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to DAL 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 40 for 20 yards (87-T.Hudson).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (8:59) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 51%

    (9:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Brown (13-D.Overshown).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (6:26) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CIN 33, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-I.Williams to CIN 45 for 12 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (:34) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:15) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CIN 14, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-I.Williams to CIN 33 for 19 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker; 89-B.Spann-Ford). PENALTY on CIN-26-T.Anderson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at CIN 14.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 83%

    (15:00) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 97%

    (10:28) 3-C.York 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:43) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CIN 19, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-I.Williams to CIN 26 for 7 yards (43-K.Hall).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 20 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:42) 8-R.Rehkow punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback. CIN-49-J.Bachie was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:41) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to CIN 18, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-I.Williams to CIN 24 for 6 yards (40-H.Luepke). PENALTY on CIN-87-T.Hudson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 24.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%

    (:24) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to 87-J.Ferguson [92-B.Hill].