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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to DAL 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 40 for 20 yards (87-T.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model