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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 17

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.09 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model