4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CIN 33, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-I.Williams to CIN 45 for 12 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model