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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 3-C.York 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP