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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 8-R.Rehkow punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback. CIN-49-J.Bachie was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.99 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model