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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to 87-J.Ferguson [92-B.Hill].

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 52, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP