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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 25

Detroit Lions 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model