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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Thursday 2024-12-05 · 20:15 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

GB
35.6%
DET
64.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DET defense: -0.174 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.249 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.179 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

GB 23
–
DET 28
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

GB

Jaire Alexander CB Out Knee
Corey Ballentine CB Out Knee
Edgerrin Cooper LB Out Hamstring
Romeo Doubs WR Out Concussion

DET

Taylor Decker T Out Knee
Levi Onwuzurike DE Out Hamstring
Josh Paschal DE Out Knee
D.J. Reader DT Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 31
–
DET 34

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:44 TD DET (9:44) 5-D.Montgomery right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 13:05 FG DET (13:05) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. GB 0 – DET 10
  • Q2 05:38 TD GB (5:38) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DET 10
  • Q2 00:14 TD DET (:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary]. GB 7 – DET 16
  • Q3 13:20 TD GB (13:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DET 17
  • Q3 11:21 TD GB (11:21) (No Huddle) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – DET 17
  • Q3 05:05 TD DET (5:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-T.Patrick for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 21 – DET 23
  • Q4 14:24 TD GB (14:24) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – DET 24
  • Q4 08:43 TD DET (8:43) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-T.Patrick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 28 – DET 30
  • Q4 03:42 FG GB (3:42) 17-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 31 – DET 31
  • Q4 00:02 FG DET (:02) 39-J.Bates 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. ** Injury Update: GB-25-K.Nixon has returned to the game. GB 31 – DET 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 34%

    (6:45) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to DET 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-M.Alexander.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:47) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to GB 48, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (3:57) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to DET 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-M.Alexander.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:43) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to GB 27, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on GB-22-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 27.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (13:05) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary].

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 34%

    (9:05) 16-J.Goff up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (95-D.Wyatt).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (5:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-T.Patrick for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:30) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to DET 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-M.Alexander.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (1:29) 26-J.Gibbs right end to DET 30 for -1 yards (7-Q.Walker, 58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (3:42) 17-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 92%

    (:43) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to GB 14 for 7 yards (57-B.Cox). GB-25-K.Nixon was injured during the play.