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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 2

Detroit Lions 10 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary].

The Three Options

GO +3.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.80 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model