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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 28 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 17-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model