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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to DET 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-M.Alexander.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.67 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model