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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 90

Detroit Lions 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to GB 48, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model