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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to DET 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-M.Alexander.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model