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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 2

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 61-J.Ojukwu and 98-J.Simmons reported in as eligible. 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short left to 84-N.Vannett (5-A.Cisco).

The Three Options

GO +3.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth +0.72 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model