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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

JAX
42.9%
TEN
57.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Mac Jones (JAX): -0.145 EPA/dropback in prior starts (JAX starting Mac Jones in place of Trevor Lawrence)
  • JAX offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

JAX

Logan Cooke P Questionable Left Knee
Yasir Abdullah LB Questionable Hamstring
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Thigh
Ross Matiscik LS Questionable Hamstring

TEN

Logan Bruss G Out Knee
Jaelyn Duncan T Out Hamstring
Jerome Baker LB Questionable Neck
Jarvis Brownlee CB Questionable Hip
Roger McCreary CB Questionable Shoulder
Kenneth Murray LB Questionable Hamstring
T'Vondre Sweat DT Questionable Shoulder
Leroy Watson T Questionable Back
James Williams LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 10
–
TEN 6

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:37 FG TEN (8:37) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. JAX 0 – TEN 3
  • Q3 04:35 FG TEN (4:35) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. JAX 0 – TEN 6
  • Q4 12:12 FG JAX (12:12) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – TEN 6
  • Q4 06:51 TD JAX (6:51) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – TEN 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 83%

    (8:37) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:47) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

    (13:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (4:46) 61-J.Ojukwu and 98-J.Simmons reported in as eligible. 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short left to 84-N.Vannett (5-A.Cisco).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TEN 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:32) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 22 for 14 yards (41-O.Reese). PENALTY on JAX-30-M.Brown, Illegal Use of Hands, 4 yards, enforced at JAX 8.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (4:35) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%

    (14:13) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle pushed ob at TEN 11 for 12 yards (29-J.Brownlee; 37-A.Hooker).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (12:12) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at JAX 19 for 8 yards (80-B.Oliver).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 40 for 6 yards (81-J.Deguara).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep middle to 83-T.Boyd [91-A.Armstead].