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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TEN 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.02 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model