Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 22 for 14 yards (41-O.Reese). PENALTY on JAX-30-M.Brown, Illegal Use of Hands, 4 yards, enforced at JAX 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.95 EP
66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model