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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 87

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.15 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 87, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP