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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 21

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.95 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model