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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle pushed ob at TEN 11 for 12 yards (29-J.Brownlee; 37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model