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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.12 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 9, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model