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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 40 for 6 yards (81-J.Deguara).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.41 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 86, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 44, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model