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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.01 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model